Publications in English

This study analyzes the dynamics and effects of inflation expectations in South American countries. The first phase employs the Kalman filter and state-space models to estimate unobservable time series of inflation expectations. In the second phase, the effects of shocks to expectations on key macroeconomic variables—such as inflation, GDP, and interest rates—are assessed using Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) models. The results indicate that, during periods of high inflation, expectations tend to rise, driven by inflationary inertia and heightened uncertainty.